Trump's economy: Solid and steady but vulnerable to threats

WASHINGTON (AP) — A portrait of a robust U.S. economy is sure to take center stage Tuesday night when President Donald Trump gives his third State of the Union address. It is an economy that has proved solid and durable yet hasn't fulfilled many of Trump's promises.

Nine months before the election, the economy keeps growing steadily if only modestly. Unemployment is at a half-century low. And consumers, the lifeblood of the U.S. economy, continue to spend. Average pay is rising faster than when Trump took office three years ago, with the largest percentage gains now going to lower-wage workers. Some research has found that this trend, which began in 2015 before Trump's election, partly reflects higher state minimum wages.

Economists warn, though, that the U.S. expansion, now in its record-long 11th year, faces an array of threats. Most immediately, China's viral outbreak has paralyzed business with the world's second-largest economy. Starbucks and Apple have closed stores in China, airlines have canceled flights and companies like General Motors have halted production there.

All of that could shave one-half percentage point off annual growth in the first quarter, Goldman Sachs economists forecast, though they expect the slowdown to be offset by a rebound in the second quarter. Boeing's decision to halt production of its 737 MAX should also weaken growth in the first six months of the year, economists say.

America's manufacturing sector is struggling, a reflection of Trump's trade conflicts. High corporate debt levels have sparked concerns. Some analysts also worry that the Federal Reserve's ultra-low interest rates have helped feed risky bubbles in stocks or other assets.

And leading Democratic presidential candidates, especially Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, have built their campaigns to unseat...