COVID-19 models plot dire scenarios for California hospitals

LOS ANGELES (AP) — When Gov. Gavin Newsom provided a dire view of California’s out-of-control surge of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations this week, he referred to projection models of future death and misery that he said were becoming “alarmingly” more accurate.

If true, then over the next four weeks the state’s hospitals could be overflowing with 75,000 patients — about five times the current level — and an average of 400 people will die every day.

Hospitals were on the brink of being overrun with nearly 15,000 patients with COVID-19 when Newsom made the announcement Tuesday. The hospitalization projection is based on cases continuing to increase at the current rate of infection without people taking additional precautions to prevent spreading the virus.

At that trajectory, it doesn't take long before the state is in a very bad place, said Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, Santa Cruz.

“One thing that's worrisome is that for quite a while in California we've had exponential hospitalizations and cases,” Kilpatrick said. “That's kind of terrifying.”

The models posted online by the California Department of Public Health largely show one key indicator — the transmission rate — improving in recent days. But that number still remains at a point where each person with the virus infects more than one other person, leading to out-of-control spread.

The state uses multiple models to try to predict hospitalizations. When they are combined into an “ensemble" projection, the total is less dire but still shockingly high by mid-January: more than 33,000. That would still create an overwhelming load for hospitals.

The model for the increase in deaths does not include an estimate based on the current rate of infection. But an average of dozens of...