Global growth is likely to slow this year – Capital Economics
Tuesday, 15 January 2019 Analysts at Capital Economics expect the global growth to slow to its weakest pace since the financial crisis later this year, led by slowdowns in the US, euro-zone and China.
“We expect global GDP growth to fall to a ten-year low over the next two years. The euro-zone's economy is likely to lose more steam, and the US economy to weaken as monetary tightening bites and the fiscal boost fades. This should prompt the US Fed to end its tightening cycle in the coming months and begin cutting interest rates next year. Meanwhile, policymakers in China are likely to ease policy further as weak credit growth weighs on activity.”
“Many of the indicators that tend to turn first around peaks in the business cycle are now flashing red in several major economies. Against this backdrop, world trade is likely to slow further despite the temporary ceasefire in the US-China trade dispute and ongoing trade talks between the two countries.”