Not all or nothing: Anti-virus lockdowns could lift slowly

WASHINGTON (AP) — For the millions of Americans living under some form of lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus, not knowing when the restrictions will end is a major source of anxiety. Will life events — weddings, funerals, even just simple nights out with friends — be delayed for a few weeks, a few months or much longer?

President Donald Trump gave one answer this week, saying he hoped businesses would reopen by Easter, on April 12, citing the severe damage restrictions have done to the economy. Most public health experts, however, caution that it would be reckless to lift restrictions before COVID-19 infections have peaked and begun to ebb — unleashing a second wave of cases that could be just as damaging to the economy.

Scientists are reluctant to predict exactly when restrictions could be safely loosened, but based on what they've observed in China — the first country struck by the new virus — some relief could come approximately six to eight weeks after lockdowns are implemented. That is based on the assumption that cases could peak two or three weeks after lockdowns begin, and gradually decline for the next two or three weeks.

While we may yearn for a clear timeline for when life will return to normal, scientists say that isn't exactly the right question. Routines won't resume exactly as they were for several months, or longer – but that doesn't mean we'll all be stuck in total lockdowns until then.

“We can’t simply wait inside for two years for a COVID-19 vaccine" to be developed, said Stephen Morse, a disease researcher at Columbia University. “We have to find some way to return to normal life.”

Decisions on how and when to lift restrictions, he added, should be based on information about infection rates that can only be learned by increasing testing. That will allow...