Airlines face holiday test as demand surges

The airline industry’s recovery is being tested this holiday season as passengers return in near pre-pandemic numbers.

The resurgence in air travel is being fueled by pent-up demand and the availability of vaccines, along with an apparent lull in virus cases since summer's big wave. The Transportation Security Administration says that passenger checkpoints are nearly as busy now as they were in 2019, before the pandemic.

Airlines have been ramping up capacity to meet this demand, but the industry is hampered by a lagging workforce recovery. They're struggling to hire more staff, especially air crews. That's raised concerns that major airlines could be in for a rough December.

“Like a lot of industries, they are competing for people,” said Peter McNally, an analyst at Third Bridge. “They know what they have to do, it’s just a matter of going out and doing it.”

Major airlines encouraged thousands of workers to quit last year when air travel collapsed during the pandemic. They were barred from laying off workers as a condition of federal pandemic relief. Those workers have not returned quickly enough, leaving the current workforce stretched. In many cases flight crews are reaching their limit of allowable hours, forcing flight cancellations because there aren’t enough cabin crews.

American Airlines faced such a situation in late October when it had to cancel more than a thousand flights because it was short-staffed. Southwest Airlines also made headlines for flight cancellations in October. Both airlines cited weather problems, though analysts have said that any actual weather or air traffic issues have just made the root problem of staffing shortages worse.

“One of the problems the airlines had so far in their coverage was the unpredictable nature in booking,” McNally...