As children return to classrooms, stores expect strong sales

NEW YORK (AP) — As more children go back to the physical classroom, families are expected to spend robustly on a wide range of items, particularly trendy clothing like cropped tops, for the critical back-to-school season, according to one key spending measure.

Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment forms including cash, forecasts that spending will be up 5.5% between July 15 and Sept. 6. That's compared with the year-ago period when sales were up a meager 1.2% as the pandemic wreaked havoc on schools' reopening plans and back-to-school shopping.

Last year, parents focused their spending online and bought supplies and electronics to help their children set up work stations at home. When it came to apparel, they limited their purchases to sweatpants and other comfy clothes for their kids and avoided department stores.

In a more telling sign of a rebound, back-to-school sales should increase 6.7% on a two-year basis, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. The figures exclude sales from autos and gas.

The rosy forecast, issued Thursday, comes as retailers, particularly mall-based stores, are seeing a strong recovery as newly vaccinated shoppers feel safe going out and socializing. On Wednesday, the National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, sharply revised its annual outlook for retail sales. It now expects the increase to be anywhere from 10.5% to 13.5% compared to an earlier forecast made in February of at least 6.5%.

"The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the retail trade group, in a statement. “The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private-sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back...