Hot or cold, expert says 'still going to get transmission'

Despite much speculation about whether transmission of the new coronavirus may wane in warmer climates, David Relman, an infectious disease expert at Stanford University, says virus transmission can still occur if people are not careful.

Gloria Tso reports.

One disease expert says we don't know enough about whether the coronavirus could fade with warmer weather.

That may dim hopes that cities which are hotter or more spread out could escape the worst of the pandemic or that summer may see the virus fizzle out.

David Relman, an infectious disease expert at Stanford University, says the virus hasn't been around long enough for scientists to gather enough data.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) DAVID RELMAN, MICROBIOLOGIST AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY, SAYING: "In the case of new influenza viruses, pandemic influenza viruses, they didn't really show much seasonality in their first years of living with humans.

It took quite some time for them to become seasonal." Relman says whether it's hot outside or not, transmission of the virus can still happen.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) DAVID RELMAN, MICROBIOLOGIST AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY, SAYING: "While there are tantalizing suggestions that perhaps in some cases warmer places have less transmission, it is by no means uniform.

All you have to do for example is just look at the United States right now.

Look at New Orleans.

New Orleans has a terrible, explosive outbreak right now and New Orleans is one of the warmest places in the United States right now as well." The World Health Organization has said there's no concrete evidence that temperature could play a role in the pandemic, but acknowledged it was an avenue worth exploring.

However, that hasn't stopped speculation.

Back in February U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the virus could be gone within two months.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYING: "Now the virus that we're talking about having to do - you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat, as the heat comes in.

Typically that will go away in April." Relman is warning people to stay vigilant, and not let their guard down.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) DAVID RELMAN, MICROBIOLOGIST AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY, SAYING: "You know, should we make policy based on the assumption that this is true?

In my humble opinion, no.

And that is because if we make those decisions now and we are wrong, which I think we may well be, at least in assuming that there's a big effect of summer time, we will have lost all of the intervening weeks of, you know, potential, critical benefit from social distancing and the things we are doing now."