Trump Backs Away From Conflict With Iran After Harmless Attack

  Video commentary for January 8th 2020   Eoin Treacy's view A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.  Some of the topics discussed include: geopolitcal tensions easing leads to all change in safe have assets, key reversals in oil and US Treasuries, stock markets breakout, changing geopolitical calculations suggest a more beligerent US is inevitable.      Trump Backs Away From Conflict With Iran After Harmless Attack This article by Josh Wingrove and Jennifer Jacobs may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: Iran fired more than a dozen guided missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Qassem Soleimani. But a Pentagon analysis of the attack suggested the missiles were aimed at unpopulated parts of the bases, according to people familiar with the matter. Satellite imagery of the bases provided by Planet Labs showed damaged aircraft hangers and other structures at the Al Asad airbase in western Iraq following the strike. “Iran appears to be standing down,” Trump said. “Which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world.” Iran’s restraint and Trump’s measured remarks in response suggest a path toward easing tensions with Tehran, which surged after Soleimani’s killing in a U.S. drone strike near the Baghdad airport last week. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said on Twitter earlier Wednesday that the missile attack “concluded” Iran’s retaliation for Soleimani’s killing. Even if Tehran refrains from further direct attacks, it might still seek reprisals through more covert means, such as attacks by proxy militias or in cyberspace. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.   Eoin Treacy's view The de-escalation of the tensions with Iran resulted in a reversal of a number of short-term overbought conditions overnight. Attention will now likely turn to the conclusion of the first phase of the trade deal next week and the continued actions of the Federal Reserve in addressing the liquidity constraints of the repo market. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.   Byron Wien and Joe Zidle Announce the Ten Surprises of 2020 Thanks to a subscriber for this note from Blackstone which may be of interest. Here is a section: 1. The economy disappoints the consensus forecast, but a recession is avoided. Federal Reserve Chair Powell lowers the Fed funds rate to 1%. Without a comprehensive trade deal in hand, President Trump exercises every executive authority he has to stimulate growth and ward off recession. He cuts payroll taxes to put more money in the hands of consumers.   Eoin Treacy's view This year I was struck by how close to consensus the majority of the forecasts are, but the first one is certainly headline grabbing. The consensus in the bond market suggests one additional rate cut this year, not three. If the 9th surprise of Treasury yields at 2.5% were to come to fruition it would represent a massive steepening of the yield curve. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.   Eoin's personal portfolio - profits taken in commodity longs   Eoin Treacy's view One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change. I'll change the title to the date of publication of new details so you will know when the information was provided. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.   Pandora Soars as Investors Get Early Glimpse of Results This article by Christian Wienberg for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: The world’s biggest maker of jewelry added roughly a tenth to its market value on Monday after reassuring investors it would reach the upper end of its profit forecast for 2019. Shares in Pandora A/S rose as much as 12%, as the Copenhagen-based company released some preliminary figures ahead of its Feb. 4 annual results. It now expects its profit margin for 2019 to be in the higher end of the previously guided range of 26-27%. The update was “definitely good news,” said Per Fogh, an analyst at Sydbank. “Many people had expected Pandora to miss that guidance altogether, so a margin in the upper end of the range shows that Pandora has been able to get its costs under control under its turnaround plan.”   Eoin Treacy's view This video has been following me around the internet for much of the last month and its touching sentiment may have been enough to help boost sales in the critical fourth quarter for jewelry sales. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.   Email of the day - on gold's fair value Thank you for the interesting article about golds "fair" value. I remember many many years ago David once mentioned that somebody he respects mentioned that the fair value of a certain British gold coin is a dinner for two at Claridges in London. Unfortunately, I do not remember which coin it was.   Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this reminder. I believe the coin in question is a gold sovereign which currently retails for £294. By that measure it would difficult to conclude gold is overvalued, particularly if the diners wish to have a glass of wine with their dinner.    Continues in the Subscriber's Area.