July US jobs report is expected to point to hiring slowdown

WASHINGTON (AP) — Just how severely has the resurgence of the coronavirus pummeled the U.S. economy? The jobs report for July being released Friday will provide the clearest answer yet.

Economists have forecast that employers added 1.6 million jobs, according to a survey by data provider FactSet. That would normally be a scintillating gain. Yet it would still fall far short of June's 4.8 million increase and May's 2.7 million gain. And it would mean that the economy has regained only about 40% of the jobs that were lost when the pandemic intensified in March and triggered a deep recession and tens of millions of layoffs.

The unemployment rate is expected to have declined from 11.1% to 10.5%, which would still exceed the highest rate during the 2008-2009 Great Recession.

Some economists say Friday's report could even show that the nation lost jobs in July. Others expect the gain to be much larger. The pandemic has so disrupted the economy that the range of predictions by experts has become much wider — and less accurate — than it typically was before.

The economy cratered in the April-June quarter, shrinking at a nearly 33% annual rate, as the viral outbreak shut down businesses and consumers pulled back sharply on dining out, traveling and shopping.

Growth rebounded in May and June. But the viral outbreak re-intensified in late June, doubling the nation's daily confirmed case count to more than 60,000. Case counts have declined somewhat in recent weeks. Yet the new outbreaks have forced most states to pause or reverse their re-openings — closing bars, discouraging travel and limiting shopping and indoor dining for a second time, all of which has likely slowed hiring.

Even when the economy does rebound, it's likely to do so, at least initially, with fewer jobs. Once an economy starts to recover, companies...